Predicted times ex. JVT
Post by iconPost by kalle | 2019-11-24 | 18:50:24


Im not sure how to read the spreedsheat on the predicted times. I got the idea of the first colum but cant see the point on showing older data in the other colums...

Maybee i should ask for money back for my schooltime ;))

Can someone help me out here.


commenticon 17 Comments
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2019-11-24 | 19:24:22
You got it right. Next columns are previous forecasts for the same starting time. Just lets you know if it's a tendency or just one-off anomaly.

Post by iconPost by kalle | 2019-11-24 | 19:39:00

So first columns count.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-02-11 | 17:54:28

An even more difficult decision for anyone who has a good enough run going to lose something (in addition to 1500 credits) by restarting. In my case, I don't think my current run can beat my first run's finish, but I'd like to be able to get to the finish line in time to restart, just to save 1500 credits. I don't think it will be possible, but we'll see.

FWI... Toxxct's polar chart shows the remaining time for each event. It's the quickest way to see how much time is left. Right now, it shows 49:05. So... in five days, when the window starts to be ok, we'll have 44 days left. In 6 days, when it's quite good, we'll have 43 left. But then it continues to get a little better, all the way to at least the 18th, when we'd only have 42 days left. I think the 19th and even 20th will probably also look good, but then we'll only have 41 or 40 days left. Difficult decisions.

Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-02-11 | 19:33:55
The longest forecast seems to always be too optimistic. Probably because GFS comes only in 12-hour increments past 10 days and the router get static weather at the end.

Then the best time to the equator may not translate to (predicted) best time to Cape Horn. I personally look at that when the time comes - it's easily within reach, about 14 days. 7+ day forecast for the st. Helena high may not be very accurate, but may still be useful.

I wold not leave less than 43 days for an run unless I have sub-43 day result already.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-02-11 | 20:09:47
Good recommendation. That would suggest starting no later than January 17 if you don't already have one of the best recorded finishes. I have 43:17, but I might wait longer anyway... partly because I'm hoping to finish the current run and avoid paying 1500 credits to restart, and partly because I don't mind risking having the race close on me. I think it might be fun to do the race, knowing I have to put up a winning time to finish at all. But... we'll see. The forecast has a week to change.

Tough decision for no-options boats... By the time that window arrives, they might struggle to finish.
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-02-11 | 21:14:31
Make that January 18th. It's a leap year and sub-42 days is possible if all stars align. But you are still a day or two short with the current run.

I have 43:22. Current run is going well so far. Day 21, a day in front the previous attempt and 12 hours in front of the winner. Forecast to the Cape is pretty good. 42 days seem within reach with some luck in the Atlantic.

P.S. Just noticed there are boats 20 hours in front of me at Cape Leeuwin on the same window. They took earlier shortcut in the Atlantic and it worked out. Now a bit closer - like 9 hours, but that gets down the possible time down to 41 days.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-02-14 | 15:03:08
I think the winning time a couple years ago was in the 38's, but it takes perfect weather luck all the way around to get a time like that.

Unfortunately, the current forecast has all of this weekend's good start times getting to the Cape of Good Hope in 14 days or more. It seems that the South Atlantic is not favorable. Although the forecast for 10 days in the future isn't very reliable.

Starting this weekend and getting to CoGH in 14 days should have a good chance at finishing... 0000 Monday is still 44 days to closure... Beyond that, it gets pretty risky. I'm still undecided. I can finish my current run Wednesday and would have just over 41 days left, but restarting at that time would be a mediocre start. I'd need a lot of luck in the remainder of the race.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-02-16 | 17:23:35
Cvetan, you're looking great. Cape Horn was kind! I have a question... The predicted times chart currently shows 154 hours for 0300 on February 20... But... If I run an actual routing for that time, it looks more like 135 hours. Am I missing something?

I was planning to restart today... but if 0300 on Feb 20 is actually that good, I might take the risk.
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-02-16 | 18:16:43
It says 134 now. The predicted times page is calculated between 17:10 and 17:15 UTC. Maybe you were looking at the previous version.

I'm currently #50 at Cape Horn. Was 340th on the previous gate, but the group in front of me overtook the system and lost some distance which allowed me to get few hours closer.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-02-16 | 20:46:36
Toppen and Barnum are the best I know of in that group just ahead of you. If you can continue to gain on them, you'll be in great shape.

The best I know of in the next group ahead are Fouras_17, DogBoris, and Aspiln.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-02-17 | 17:58:03
It looks like you've caught up to the group ahead... your Day 27 dot is ahead of theirs...

0000 UTC tonight is 43 days remaining. Anyone who hasn't started yet is at risk of not finishing even if their time is good.

I am planning to risk finishing my current run and starting very late. Possibly with less than 41 days remaining.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-02-17 | 23:54:17
Hey, I'm in that group ahead. Watch what you're saying about us!

Actually, I was a day ahead of that group, but out ran a system and the pack caught me. Then the pack outran the next system and I've been watching BigBird scream up from behind. I think Menfin has the best time in the group btw.
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-02-18 | 12:04:39
And I'm still riding a ridge behind you ;-)

There is another group in front of us with very good times to Cape Horn - current leader Phil Destroy. They went very far South, close to King George island and sailed a longer track, but still in good position and forecast for the North Atlantic.
Post by iconPost by BooBill | 2020-02-19 | 01:58:48
I'm been keeping an eye on Phil Destroy. Nice time to the Cape, but he went so far south to achieve it, I don't think he really has an advantage.

Since we've both been attempting to run up the same frontal line today, did you notice that there were big discrepancies between the current wind in the router and what was experienced? I was constantly having to adjust to point higher than the router instructed in order to stay on that sweet line. Eventually, I had to admit I lost it and had to bear off east with the rest of the pack.

That almost felt like real sailing.
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-02-19 | 14:06:21
The discrepancy comes from small differences in the temporal and spatial interpolation.

Most of the time it does not matter, but close to that line +/- 5 minutes or 1 mile make a big difference.
Post by iconPost by zezo | 2020-02-26 | 11:42:26
The North Atlantic is not very cooperative, so at best I'm just going to beat my previous attempt.

Phil looks like he can make it in about 40 days, maybe even below 40.
Post by iconPost by YourMomSA | 2020-02-26 | 14:34:09
South Atlantic isn't being very friendly either. If things don't look much better by the time I get to the South Pacific, I might just make a right turn and explore Antarctica.
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