
Post by
YourMomSA | 2019-05-11 | 15:27:52
I've noticed a trend that the long-range forecasts in the "predicted times" window tend to be better early and then deteriorate as they get closer. Is that just coincidence, or is there an underlying reason, such that it's likely to continue?
I'm thinking it might not just be coincidence. The longer-range GFS forecasts are spread further apart, right? So when a nice weather system is moving toward the starting position, would that result in a later start appearing to be able to take stable advantage of that weather system longer, only to later have that appearance weaken as the proposed start date gets closer and the GFS data therefore gets more granular?
I haven't noticed this in other record attempts, so either I'm incorrect and it's coincidence, or there's something about the Yokohama weather patterns causing it. (Or it has happened in other events and I just didn't notice)